Preseason Hype
Matthew Kreuzer, $421 100, the former number one draft pick has had quite the preseason hype for a third year ruck. A certainty to improve on his game this season, however, I’m not quite sure that’ll necessarily translate to an increase in SC scoring. Looks very likely to spend extended periods up forward with the loss of Fev and having already been trailed up there last year. His preseason NAB games haven’t looked promising as he’s been finding himself stationed fairly permanently in the forward line. He’s looked to be struggling without the 2-3 defenders being drawn away to Fev and this has translated to poorer SC scoring. His ruck/forward time should be better split in the real AFL season but at his price of $421 100 – I just don’t see him taking the step up to premium ruckman. I like to set and forget my rucks (ie, no trading) and the difference between a ruck you can lock in for 100-105ppg and one that will score you just 80-85ppg is a big 440 points by the end of the season.
The Bargain
The Bargain
Robert Warnock, $132 200, a lot of preseason hype and should play all 22 games barring injury. At $132k – such relatively safe ruck cover hardly comes by this cheap. Don’t expect big scores though – I expect him to average 45-55 for the season.
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The ‘I Told You So’
Brock McLean, $425 800, every preseason Brock ‘trains the house down’ and ‘tears up the track’ but then come the real season proceeds to pick up soft tissue injuries and flounders under a tag. This isn’t the view of an anti-Brock man either: every year I look seriously at McLean for my team but I think it’s finally time to strike his name out forever. In the last 5 years, McLean has missed 25% of games. If the soft tissue injury potential doesn’t put you off, consider his inconsistency and you will be. A WHOOPING 28% of McLean’s games in the last 5 years (averaging 85SC in that time) have brought scores under 60… In other words, history suggests McLean is likely to miss 5 games this season and score under 60 in 6 of the games this season. Make sure you aren’t being told ‘I told you so’ mid-season and avoid this sure-fail pick. So much promise yet so little delivery – McLean has ‘Wells‘-ed his career.
The Rookie
The Rookie
Marcus Davies, $94 200, pick 43 half-back and came 2nd in the beep test at draft camp. Racked up the disposals as a junior and generates big run out of defense. The problem isn’t as much scoring as it is getting games. You’d think he needs a lucky break to do so. Still – is Carlton’s best rookie prospect for SC this year.
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The Smokey
Jarrad Waite, $407 500, on track to make it back round 1 and played in last week’s NAB Challenge game. Has had a non-existent preseason, but priced at $400k with an ’08 average of 98 and an ’09 average of 107 (before the injury), he’s cheap as chips. Even if he starts off slowly but finishes well, he can still average 95, which is premium level in the backline. Also going to get to spend more time as a forward – which he played well in when he drifted forward last year. However, players returning from ACLs = risk.
The Superstar
The Superstar
Bryce Gibbs, $568 600, with Segal suspended for 3 games and Murphy with an injury cloud hanging over his head, Gibbs is THE Carlton superstar to start off with. Entering into his fourth season this year, it looks like he’ll improve yet AGAIN. Can win the inside ball, plays off the half-back, plays in the guts, delivers into the forwardline lace-out, need I say much more?
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Fantasy-Relevant Walking Wounded
Marc Murphy, $599 500, recovering from hip surgery in early Feb. Will play from round 1 but will have reduced TOG and will play roles less taxing on his body in the first few rounds. Scoring will be down to start the season – AVOID! Then pick him up cheap 
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I think Betts could be a decent option this year. Could spend more time in the midfield after hearing reports of being super fit. And can win his own footy in there, fitness has always held him back.
Could he be the Leon Davis type player only time will tell
I’m a hawthorn man and still wouldn’t touch brown! Not going to improve to the level of Waite!
What are peoples thoughts on Betts? Rarely misses games and should get more of the pill with there not being so much of a Fev focus?!?
Betts seems to have been talked about as a legitimate SC option this pre-season and is a valid punt to take.
I’m of the opinion that inconsistent scoring will rob him of ever stepping up to a premium. His SC history also shows a trend line that’s unlikely to see a huge spike in scoring.
Definitely Waite over Brown at this stage although Brown is due for some good form especially now Sewell is out he should get sometime through the midfield.
Waite doesn’t really need that much confidence in the ACL given the role he’s playing ie rebounding defender or drifting forward or playing on the wing.
If as suggested by YSCC Jarrad starts slowly why could he not be a cheap upgrade target – once we see he has confidence back?
By start slowly I mean that I feel Waite will score around his price tag of $400k to start the year.
Confidence is less of an issue as mobility, fitness, etc after the ACL. I’m still undecided on whether or not to take the Waite risk.
I’d pick Waite even if he had a broken leg over Brown anyday of the week.
Instead of Waite I have opted for C.Brown with $133K left over. I may still change before the lockout
Even with his injury worries I’d still rather have Waite over C Brown, he really is a nothing pick who is going to average 70-80 at an excessive price. Dont pick CBrown!!!